Royal Moroccan Navy. What the South Korean Submarine Lead Really Conceals

For several years, the recurring narrative of the "first Moroccan submarine" has regularly resurfaced in the national press. The debate has now been reignited by the "2026 Outlook Report" from Mirae Asset Securities. The financial institution now places Morocco in its potential sales "pipeline" for Seoul’s shipyards, projecting the sale to the Royal Moroccan Navy of 3 KSS-III Batch-I units, a highly advanced conventional attack submarine (diesel-electric) designed for maritime surveillance, deterrence, and long-range strike capabilities, with potential delivery by 2027.

First and foremost, it is important to recall the nature of the issuer. Mirae Asset is an investment bank whose role is to identify growth opportunities for Korean industrial champions in order to inform equity investors.

In its projections, the report estimates the unit price of the Korean attack submarine at around $900 million (1.2 trillion KRW), including a 20% margin over domestic production costs. While the inclusion of Morocco allows South Korean shipbuilders to project future revenues, it falls far short of constituting evidence of any contractual commitment on the part of Morocco.

The Royal Navy’s “wait-and-see” approach

The Kingdom is accustomed to such a “wait-and-see” approach. In the past, similar reports have successively linked Morocco to potential negotiations with Russia (Amur class), Germany (Type 214), France (Scorpène), and even Greece for second-hand units.

While Mirae Asset’s report highlights South Korea’s increasingly assertive positioning, it does not imply any commitment from the Royal Armed Forces. In the subtle dynamics of defense diplomacy, Morocco could just as well leverage Korean interest to secure more favorable terms from its traditional partners, such as the United States, France, or Spain.

Caution is therefore warranted. The “Morocco” line in such financial reports is, for now, more an indicator of Seoul’s commercial momentum than a reflection of the Royal Navy’s actual order book.

For Abdelhamid Harifi, our military consultant, it is also crucial not to overinterpret South Korean financial documents. In his view, the 2027 timeline does not correspond to a delivery, but rather to the likely opening of a formal consultation phase.

“You don’t buy a submarine on a whim. 2027 is just around the corner,” he cautions. “What this document suggests is a timetable for Korean shipbuilders to submit bids in various international tenders. It is plausible that Morocco could launch a tender process around 2027, but it is far too early to speak of a firm acquisition.”

Furthermore, the figure of three submarines appears ambitious for a navy that has no historical “submarine capability base”. Integrating such technology requires a level of training and institutional structuring that the proposed timeline seems to underestimate.

If the Royal Navy’s need is real, it remains part of a complex strategic trade-off. Morocco must currently strengthen its patrol and combat fleet, as well as its logistical capabilities. Investment in submarines would primarily serve a deterrence strategy, which has become increasingly relevant amid rising regional tensions.

However, for Abdelhamid Harifi, the issue goes beyond mere regional rivalry; it constitutes a global sovereignty imperative tied to the protection of maritime routes.

The Strait of Gibraltar: a global sovereignty challenge

Our military consultant directly links this ambition to the geopolitical dynamics of major international straits, citing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz as an example. “This runs counter to international law. Straits do not fall under the sovereignty of any single country,” Abdelhamid Harifi reminds. “If this principle is undermined, the security of global maritime traffic would be at risk.”

In this context, Morocco, which holds vital economic interests with Tanger Med and soon Nador West Med, must position itself as a key player in securing the Strait of Gibraltar. Acquiring a submarine capability would enable the Kingdom to safeguard maritime traffic against both asymmetric and state threats, assert itself as a pivotal and stabilizing maritime power in the region, and ultimately protect its strategic port infrastructure.

In sum, while Mirae Asset Securities’ document reflects Seoul’s commercial ambitions, it also suggests that Morocco is quietly preparing for a doctrinal shift. The 2027 horizon could mark the formal beginning of a new era for the Royal Moroccan Navy—one in which it becomes capable of monitoring not only the surface, but also the depths of its strategic waters.