Listed banks: results outlook for 2026–2027

The listed banking sector is entering a phase of normalized growth, with improved visibility on profits. In fact, 2025 results exceeded expectations, supported by several structural drivers.

According to AGR, 2025 performance was largely driven by a sharp reversal in the cost of risk, following four years of deterioration. By the end of September, the cost of risk had fallen 9.8% to 10.5 billion MAD, reflecting a consolidation of Morocco’s default rate amid a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop and gradual portfolio normalization.

The sustainability of net banking income (NBI) growth is another key driver of outperformance. Unlike previous cycles, revenue expansion now rests on more durable factors—most notably the momentum in equipment loans supporting the net interest margin, alongside a gradual reconfiguration of NBI marked by the rising weight of market activities and commissions.

Simultaneously, the trend decrease in the operating ratio is part of an underlying movement, largely attributed by AGR to continuous investments in digital banking, which allow both to absorb the growth in activity and contain the evolution of expenses.

2026–2027 Forecasts: What Lies Ahead

Attijariwafa Bank

Attijariwafa Bank

For 2026–2027, Attijariwafa Bank’s net banking income (NBI) is projected to grow at an annual rate of nearly 5%, fueled by strong equipment‑loan dynamics. The group is expected to retain its leading position in this segment, with an estimated market share of 35%.

Operational efficiency is expected to keep improving, with the operating ratio targeted at 34.7% in 2027. This trajectory is supported by ongoing cost optimization and the growing role of digital channels.

On the risk front, AGR expects the cost of risk to normalize at around 68 basis points in 2027, a level near the historical average. This reflects a more supportive macroeconomic environment.

In this context, group net income is projected to reach 11.6 billion MAD in 2027, underscoring the bank’s solid profitability profile. The stock would trade on a 2027 P/E of 13.7x, a 24% discount to the sector’s long‑term average, with an estimated dividend yield of 2.9% over the period.

Source: medias24.com

Banque centrale populaire

BCP is projected to enter a phase of stabilized profit growth, having crossed the 5 billion MAD threshold in group net income as early as 2025.

Attijari Global Research forecasts NBI growth of 4.3% in 2026, slowing to 3.7% in 2027, signaling a more normalized but sustainable path. 

Operational efficiency is expected to remain central, with the operating ratio reduced to 43.3% in 2026 and 43.1% in 2027, supported by network optimization and the growing role of digital banking. 

Risk indicators should continue to normalize, with the cost of risk easing to 165 basis points in 2026 and 160 basis points in 2027, close to pre‑Covid benchmarks.

In absolute terms, the cost of risk is projected at 5.8 billion MAD in 2026, rising slightly to about 5.9 billion MAD in 2027.

In this context, group net income is projected at 5.3 billion MAD in 2026 and 5.6 billion MAD in 2027, with an average ROE exceeding 11% over the period.

From a valuation perspective, the stock is projected to trade on a 2027 P/E of 10.2x—the lowest among listed banks—while delivering an estimated average dividend yield of 4.4%, underscoring its attractive yield profile.

Source: medias24.com

Bank of Africa

BOA’s net banking income (NBI) is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 5.3% over 2025–2027, fueled by the group’s participation in major investment projects in Morocco that underpin credit dynamics.

Operational efficiency will remain a key structural lever from 2026, with the operating ratio expected to decline to 43.7% and then 43.2% in 2027—marking a cumulative reduction of more than 3 points versus 2019–2024.

This trend is underpinned by continued investment in IT and operational efficiency.

On the risk front, AGR expects a controlled annual increase of 3.1% in the cost of risk over 2025–2027, with the rate targeted at 120 basis points in 2027, down from 129 basis points in 2024.

In this context, group net income is projected at 4.1 billion MAD in 2026 and 4.4 billion MAD in 2027, with ROE approaching 13%.

From a valuation perspective, the share would be priced at a 2027 P/E of 10.6x, reflecting a 41% discount to the sector’s normative level, and delivering an estimated average dividend yield of 4.8%.

Source: medias24.com

CIH Bank

CIH Bank’s net banking income (NBI) is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.9% over 2024–2027, supported by favorable commercial momentum and strong market‑activity performance. 

It should be noted that the improvement in operational efficiency would continue in 2026, with the operating ratio reduced to 41.9%, then 41.7% in 2027, representing a cumulative gain of 2.2 points compared to 2024, despite a controlled increase in management fees.

On the risk side, AGR expects a cautious increase in the cost of risk, following the normalization seen in 2024. 

This would reach 1.3 billion MAD by 2027, corresponding to a rate of 94 basis points, a level considered controlled given the bank's growth profile.

In this context, the net income group share would be 1.1 billion MAD in 2026, then 1.2 billion MAD in 2027. In terms of valuation, the stock would trade based on a 2027 P/E of 11.6x, at a discount compared to the normative level of the banking sector.

This profit trajectory paves the way for an upward adjustment in the dividend policy, with an estimated average dividend yield of 4.5% over 2025–2027, higher than that of the sector.

Source: medias24.com

BMCI

By 2026–2027, BMCI would operate in a scenario of profit growth still constrained by high expenses, despite now stabilized activity.

Indeed, the NBI would increase at an average annual rate of 3.1% over 2025–2027, reflecting a more moderate dynamic than that of the sector.

The improvement in operational efficiency would remain gradual, with an operating ratio reduced to 57.8% in 2026, then 56.6% in 2027, following a normalization initiated since the peak reached in 2021.

However, this level would remain significantly higher than the sector average, reflecting a still high cost base.

On the risk front, AGR anticipates an average cost of risk of about 121 basis points over 2025–2027, higher than the pre-Covid average, with a moderate annual increase over the period.

In this context, the net income group share would evolve below 500 million MAD in 2026, to reach 429 million MAD, then 491 million MAD in 2027, representing a gradual improvement in profitability.

In terms of valuation, the stock would trade based on a 2027 P/E of 17x, consistent with the normative level of the banking sector, with an estimated average dividend yield of 4.8% by 2027.

Source: medias24.com

Crédit du Maroc

Crédit du Maroc stands out as one of the best return-growth pairs in the listed banking sector.

Indeed, the group would display sustained revenue dynamics, with a NBI increasing by 7.1% in 2026 to 3.8 billion MAD, then 6.7% in 2027 to over 4 billion MAD, driven by the new commercial strategy implemented since Holmarcom became a reference shareholder.
The improvement in operational efficiency would remain a central lever in 2026, with an operating ratio reduced to 46.3%, then 45.5% in 2027, gradually approaching the sector average, thanks to continuous efforts in optimization and rationalization of expenses.

On the risk front, AGR anticipates a stabilized cost of risk rate around 57 basis points in 2027, after the marked improvement observed in 2024, reflecting strengthened asset quality.

In this context, the net income group share would reach 915 million MAD in 2026, then 995 million MAD in 2027, representing a CAGR of 10.3% over 2024-2027. In terms of valuation, the stock would trade based on a 2027 P/E of 11.5x, at a discount compared to the normative level of the sector, while offering an estimated average dividend yield of 5.2%—the highest in the listed banking sector

Source: medias24.com

CFG Bank

CFG Bank would display a marked growth dynamic in 2026–2027. According to forecasts, the NBI would reach 1.355 billion MAD in 2026 (+13.6%) then 1.550 billion MAD in 2027 (+14.4%).

The economies of scale would result in a continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with an operating ratio reduced to 51.6% in 2026 then 50.3% in 2027.

The cost of risk would remain contained, at 61 million MAD in 2026 and 75 million MAD in 2027